Features

Multimode 802.16e Pushes WiMAX onto the 4G NGMN Front Burner

By Priya George

WiMAX is on track to compete for mainstream wireless markets according to according to a Maravedis WiMAX and broadband wireless (sub-11GHz) market research report. “Nothing points out the immediate course into mass market development than the planned introduction of multimode WiMAX mobile plus cellular semiconductors and devices” said Adlane Fellah, Senior Analyst at Maravedis, and co-author of the report.

The 800-page report provides an analysis of the broadband wireless market, technology trends, regulation as well as Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). The document also considers the experience of service providers whilst providing an overview of key emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), in addition to an in-dept analysis of municipal markets.

Some of the highlights of the report include:

Service providers are examining fixed mobile convergence to reverse ARPU decline
WiMAX is becoming the obvious choice to extend service offering
Service providers care about certification, standardisation and economies of scale in the medium to long term, but they want robust equipment with NLOS capabilities
Outdoor WiMAX CPE will be phased out in 2008, with indoor CPEs representing the bulk of shipments
The cost of indoor CPE will fall to USD 75 by 2008, which will in turn boost the proliferation of WiMAX
Various countries do not allow TDD in the 3.5 GHz band, therefore leaving no choice but to deploy 802.16-2004 FDD equipment
BRIC countries will represent one third of accumulated BWA/WiMAX subscribers by 2012
Lack of spectrum allocated for WiMAX China and India is of concern, and may impact WiMAX adoption if not resolved by 2008
The essential IPRs (patents) for WiMAX technology being held by different and non-dominant companies will provide WiMAX the opportunity to emerge as being a lower cost technology
WiMAX will represent 90% of subscribers who are added in 2012, of whom 75% will be using 802.16-2005 technology
The WiMAX equipment market is forecasted to reach an annual USD 6 billion in 2012, and will have generated accumulated revenues of USD15 billion by then

The study exposes how the BWA market (sub-11GHz) has grown from USD 562 million in 2004 to US 637 million in 2005, representing 18% of increase. According to Maravedis, the WiMAX-certified equipment will reach USD 140 million in 2006 representing 17% of the entire BWA industry, Furthermore, Maravedis predicts an accumulated 87 million BWA subscribers by the end of 2012, 67 million of which will be WiMAX subscribers.

“While in most of Europe 2.5-2.69 GHz band is exclusively reserved for UMTS mobile services, the situation is evolving towards technology agnostic approach by regulators“, said Fellah. The report provides important insights on spectrum availability and expected regulatory changes for 2006-2008 by region and key countries.

According to Robert Syputa, Senior Analyst of Maravedis and co-author of the report, “the major criticism against mass market acceptance of WiMAX has been the lack of spectrum. Multimode does more than just open up spectrum: Starting in 2008, WiMAX that combines seamlessly with cellular will open market access to hundreds of millions of existing wireless users. For operators positioned to leverage WiMAX, this is an economically viable and more immediate path to 4G than 3G-LTE for incumbent service providers who have access to mobile BWA spectrum.”


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